Md. Aliul Islam1*, Mst. Sharmin Akter Sumy1, Md. Alhaz Uddin2, and Md. Sazzad Hossain1
1Dept. of Statistics, Islamic University, Jhenidah-Kushtia, Bangladesh; and 2Dept. of Statistics, University of Rajshahi, Rajshahi, Bangladesh
*Correspondence: aliulstatiu2010@gmail.com (Md. Aliul Islam, Dept. of Statistics, Islamic University, Jhenidah-Kushtia, Bangladesh).
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ABSTRACT
Every year, in Bangladesh the production has increased by 1.84 % and contributes 1.37 in export in the world tea trade and earnings nearing 1775 million Taka. The internal consumers of the country are presently consuming about 98% of its produce. Consumption is increasing day by day mainly due to the rapid increase in population. This study considered the published secondary data on yearly tea production in Bangladesh over the period 1990 to 2015 by the Bangladesh Tea Board. We are forecasting the production of tea and internal consumption of tea by using Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) for the next 5 years. Run test, Jarque, and Bera test criteria are used for the adequacy of the fitted model which is followed by the residual analysis. The comparison between the original series and the forecasted series are showing the same trends which indicate the fitted model is statistically well and appropriate for the forecast of the production of tea in Bangladesh.
Keywords: ARIMA Model, Tea production, Forecasting, Consumption, Internal consumption, and Export.
Citation: Islam MA, Sumy MSA, Uddin MA, and Hossain MS. (2020). Fitting ARIMA Model and Forecasting for the Tea Production, and Internal Consumption of Tea (Per year) and Export of Tea, Int. J. Mat. Math. Sci., 2(1), 8-15. https://doi.org/10.34104/ijmms.020.08015
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