The scientific name of pomegranate is Punica granatum, which belongs to the family Punicaceae. Pomegranate is one of the most prominent and economically significant commercial fruits in Afghanistan, serving as a major source of livelihood for thousands of Afghan growers (Daqiq, 2021). It is widely cultivated in tropical and subtropical regions across the world. The fruit is native to Iran and is grown as far east as the Himalayas in northern India (Shahen et al., 2019; Raveesha et al., 2023). 

Global pomegranate production was approximately 1,500,000 tons in 2009, with Iran being the largest producer (47%) and exporter. Pomegranates are consumed fresh or processed into juice and syrup (Shahidi et al., 2016). In addition to Iran, the fruit is extensively cultivated in Mediterranean countries such as Spain, Mexico, Egypt, and Afghanistan (Mishra et al., 2019). In Afghanistan, the total pomegranate cultivation area was reported at 16,443 hectares, yielding approximately 202,409 tons of production (Afghanistan Statistical Yearbook, 2019). The provinces of Kandahar, Kapisa, Tashqurghan in Samangan, Farah, and Nimroz are the principal producers of pomegranates. Every year, Afghanistan exports a sizable amount of its pomegranate crop to foreign markets, especially to Pakistan, India, and the United Arab Emirates (Pajhwok, 2018). Kapisa province, located northeast of Kabul, comprises seven administrative units: the provincial center (Mahmood Raqi) and the districts of First Part of Kohistan, Second Part of Kohistan, Kohband, Nejrab, Tagab, and Alasai. The province covers a total area of 1,842 square kilometers and has an estimated population of 471,574 (Kapisa Province Profile, July 2019). Kapisa benefits from a favorable climate and natural landscape, supporting the cultivation of various fruits such as plums, peaches, apples, berries, grapes, and pomegranates. Among these, pomegranates, grapes, and berries are particularly renowned both nationally and internationally (Kapisa Province Profile, July 2019; Sheikh et al., 2025). 

Tagab district, in the southern part of Kapisa and bordering Kabul, is known for its diverse fruit varieties, including berries, quarter-brain, black melon, and various varieties of pomegranates such as sweet, seedless, Kandahari, and seeded pomegranate (Kapisa Province Profile, July 2019). After Kandahar, Tagab holds a prominent position in Afghanistan in terms of high-quality pomegranate production. Given the economic importance and market potential of pomegranates, this study aims to analyze the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) and instability of pomegranate production in the Tagab district.

Secondary data on the area, production, and productivity of pomegranate in Alasai and Tagab districts, as well as in Kapisa province, over the past ten years (2015-16 to 2024-25), were obtained from the Kapisa Provincial Department of Agriculture, Irrigation, and Livestock. 

Growth Rate

The present study examines the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of pomegranate cultivation area, production, and productivity in Alasai and Tagab districts, as well as in Kapisa province. Growth rates are used as evaluation tools for economic parameters, aimed at illustrating trends in variables over time rather than forecasting future outcomes. Consequently, they serve as important indicators for analyzing time series data. The compound annual growth rate was calculated using the following exponential model:

Y=AB^X    --------------------------------- (I)

By applying the logarithm to both sides of the exponential equation, it can be transformed into a linear from as follows: 

Log Y=Log A+X Log B     ---------- (II)

By denoting Log A = a, Log B = b and Log Y = y, the equation can be written as: 

y=a+bX-------------------------------- (III)

Where,

y = dependent variable (area, production and productivity)

x = Time/Year (independent variable)

a = Constant/intercept

b = Regression coefficient of y on x

CAGR in % (r)=(antilog b-1)×100 ---- (IV)

Instability

Several techniques are available for measuring the instability index. In the present study, the instability in area under cultivation, production, and productivity of pomegranate was assessed using the Cuddy-Della Valle Index (CDVI). This index has been widely adopted by researchers in recent years as a reliable measure of variability in time-series data.

Cuddy-Della Valle Index (CDVI)

The simple coefficient of variation (CV) often overestimates variability in time-series data, especially long-term trends are present. The Cuddy-Della Valle Index corrects this limitation by adjusting the CV accordingly. The formula for calculating the instability index is as follows:

CDVI=CV×√(1-R^2 )   -----------------------(V)

CV="Standard Deviation (σ)" /("Mean (" X ̅")" )×100  ----------(VI)

R^2=(1-ESS/TSS)×100  ------------------------(VII)

ESS=∑_(i=1)^n▒〖(Y-Y ̂ )〗^2    -----------------------(VIII)  

TSS=∑_(i=1)^n▒〖(Y-Y ̅)〗^2    -------------------------(IX)

Where, 

            Y ̂= "is predicted value of y for observation i" 

         Yi = is the y value for observation i

            Y ̅= is the mean of y value

         CV= Coefficient of Variation 

         R²= Coefficient of determination 

         ESS= Error Sum of Square

         TSS= Total Sum of Square

The value taken by CDVI has been categorized by into different classes. The ranges of the CDVI in each class are as follows:

Low instability 0 to 15(%)

Median instability >15 to 30(%)

High instability > 30(%)

This section, in alignment with the overall objectives of the pomegranate study, presents and discusses the key aspects related to the area, production, and productivity of pomegranate in the Alasai and Tagab districts, as well as in Kapisa province.

Growth in Area of Pomegranate

Table 1: CAGR in area of pomegranate in the districts of Alasai, Tagab and Kapisa province during 2015-16 to 2024-25.

Source: (Kapisa Province Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock Department, 2025); *Significant at 5% level; NS: Non-Significant.

 Table 1 presents data on the area under pomegranate cultivation and the corresponding compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in the Alasai and Tagab districts, as well as Kapisa province. In the year 2015-16, the cultivated area was recorded at 53 hectares in Alasai, 1455 hectares in Tagab, and 1570 hectares in Kapisa. By 2024-25, these figures changed to 56 hectares in Alasai (an increase), and to 1163.8 and 1216 hectares in Tagab and Kapisa respectively (a decrease). Despite these changes, the calculated CAGRs were 0.8% in Alasai, 0.3% in Tagab, and 0.3% in Kapisa, all of which were positive but statistically non-significant.

Growth in Production of Pomegranate

Table 2: CAGR in production of pomegranate in the districts of Alasai, Tagab and Kapisa province during 2015-16 to 2024-25.

Source: (Kapisa Province Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock Department, 2025); *Significant at 5% level; NS: Non-Significant.

As shown in Table 2, the highest pomegranate production in the year 2024-25 was recorded in Tagab district at 16745.70 tons, followed by Alasai with 1293.60 tons. The data also indicate a continuous upward trend in production from 2020-21 to 2024-25. A significantly positive growth rates in production was observed in Tagab (0.002 %), while Alasai (0.05%) and Kapisa province (0.002%) recorded positive but statistically non-significant growth rates. 

 

3.3 Growth in Productivity of Pomegranate

Table 3: CAGR in productivity of pomegranate in the districts of Alasai, Tagab and Kapisa province during 2015-16 to 2024-25.

Source: (Kapisa Province Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock Department, 2025); *Significant at 5% level NS: Non-Significant.

 

Table 3 illustrates that pomegranate productivity in Kapisa province exhibited a steady increase, rising from 13.86 tons per hectare in 2015-26 to 23.10 tons per hectare in 2022-23. However, a decline of 35.06 % was recorded in 2024-25. The highest productivity was observed in Tagab district (23.10 tons/ha) in 2018-19. Conversely, the lowest productivity was recorded in Alasai district at 11.55 tons per hectare in 2020-21. The data also suggest that pomegranate productivity experienced a positive but statistically non-significant growth rate in Alasai (2.61%), followed by Tagab (2.40%) and Kapisa province as a whole (2.414%).

Instability in Area, Production and Productivity of Pomegranate

Table 4: Instability of area, production, and productivity for Pomegranate in selected districts and Kapisa Province during the period 2015-16 to 2024-25 (Percent).

Source: (Kapisa Province Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock Department, 2025).

 

The instability of pomegranate area, production, and productivity was assessed using detrended time series data over the past ten years (2015-16 to 2024-25) for Alasai, Tagab districts and Kapisa province. Table 4 indicates that the highest percentage of instability in pomegranate area was recorded in Kapisa (0.92%), while lowest was observed in Alasai (0.16%). Among the selected regions, production fluctuations were most pronounced in Tagab district. Furthermore, the highest instability in pomegranate productivity was recorded in Kapisa (2.19%), followed closely by Tagab (2.09%). Overall, the results suggest that the level of instability in pomegranate production remained low across the two districts and Kapisa province. However, production was more affected by instability compared to area and productivity. These findings align with the results reported by Hamidullah Younisi et al. (2023), who examined growth and instability in the area, production, and productivity of grapes in Afghanistan from 2011 to 2019.

The present study estimated the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) and instability (CDVI) of pomegranate area, production, and productivity in the two districts of Tagab and Alasai, as well as in Kapisa province, during the period 2015-16 to 2024-25. The results indicated a slight increase in the CAGR of pomegranate production in Tagab district, primarily due to a modest expansion in the cultivated area. Similarly, a slight increase in production was observed in Alasai district, attributed to an increase in cultivation area. However, factors such as drought, farmer's poor economic conditions, plant diseases, and the conversion of pomegranate fields to other crops have limited this growth. The findings also revealed that production instability in the studied areas was relatively low. Nevertheless, overall pomegranate productivity in Tagab remains significantly lower compared to other areas. To enhance production, improvements are recommended in irrigation systems, variety selection, packaging techniques, disease management, and adoption of modern technologies, soil quality, and plant nutrition

This research was carried out in accordance with ethical guidelines. The permission of the partici-pants was guaranteed before to data collection, and all required approvals were secured.

A.W.K.: The researcher completed the research design, data collecting, analysis, and writing. Academic guidance and advisory advice were provided by given by H.Y.; and A.Z.D.

I want to sincerely thank my supervisor, Dr. Hamidullah Younisi, who has always given me advice and generously dedicated his important time to support me during my work.

This manuscript's publishing does not present any conflicts of interest.