Apricot (Prunus armeniaca. L), and the family Rosaceae, economically important fruit tree, cultivated throughout the temperate regions of the world, especially in the Mediterranean, apricots were first domesticated in China. Afghanistan produces 1.09 lakh tones of apricot during 2018 (Afghanistan statistical year book). While the total apricot planting area was 562475 hectares in 2020. The countries with the highest apricot production were Turkey, 803000 tons, Uzbekistan, 451263 tons, Iran, 305932 tons, Italy, 230080 tons, Algeria, 203916 tons, Pakistan, 174546 tons, Afghanistan, 170508 tons, and France, 128080 tons. The estimated total world production for apricots in 2022 was 3863180 metric tons. And according the figures from department of statistics and information of Ministry of agriculture in 2021, total 17481 hectares area was under planting apricots in Afghanistan. (FAO, Corporate statistical database, 2021-2022).

Apricot possess significant economic and nutritional value, making them an important fruit crop in both local and international contexts. Economically, they generate substantial income for growers through fresh consumption and value-added products such as dried apricot, jams and kernels. While also contributing to export earnings and rural employment. Nutritionally, apricots are rich in vitamin A, vitamin C, dietary fiber, potassium, and bioactive antioxidants, which collectively support vision, immunity, cardiovascular health and digestive function. Their low caloric content, coupled with high nutrient density, positions apricot as a valuable component of a balanced diet, enhancing both public health outcomes and agricultural livelihoods. 

Apricot widely cultivated across the provinces of Afghanistan, particularly in Kabul, Parwan provinces and other northern regions. It holds economic and nutritional significance and is a source of livelihood for thousands of growers. However, apricot cultivation is vulnerable to climatic shocks, price fluctuation, and lack of technical resources. Understanding the growth performance and variability in key parameters like area, production and productivity is essential for evidence-based policy formulation (MAIL. 2024. Statistical yearbook 2023-2024. Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock. https:// mail.gov.af ). The period between 2015-16 and 2024-25 has been particularly dynamic for Afghanistan's agricultural sector. Several external and internal shocks have influenced fruit cultivation, including changes in governance, weather conditions, market fluctuations, and access to inputs. This study employs two key statistical tools- compound annual growth rate (CAGR) and instability index, to quantitatively assess the apricot sector's performance in Kabul, Parwan provinces and all Afghanistan.

Study area 

This study was conducted in Kabul, Parwan provinces and at the national level in Afghanistan. Parwan province covers an area of 5974 square kilometers, with estimated population of 792273, Kabul province with an area of 4585 square kilometers, with recent estimates (2021-2024) ranging between 5.3 and 6 million population. Afghanistan's total land area is approximately 652864 square kilometers and its population is estimated at around 36.4 million, although some sources place it between 35 and 40 million (NSIA,2025). The study relied on secondary data from the period (2015-16 to 2024-25) obtained from the Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock (MAIL), according to 2024 statistics from the MAIL, Kabul province had 854 hectares under apricot cultivation, producing 6241 metric tons, while Parwan province recorded 2355 hectares and 24725 metric tons, indicating a significantly larger cultivated area and higher production level compared to Kabul. Nationally, Afghanistan had 25500 hectares under apricot cultivation with a total production of 192028 metric tons.

Growth Rates

The present study analyzed the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of apricot cultivated area, production and productivity in Kabul, Parwan and Afghanistan as a whole. Growth rates are employed as analytical measures of economic performance, primarily to demonstrate temporal trends in key vari-ables rather than to predict future values. Therefore, they function as significant indicators in time-series analysis, enabling a systematic assessment of changes over a specified period. The (CAGR) was estimated by applying the following exponential model. 

 Y = A Bx ………………………………….………...1

By taking the logarithm of both sides, the equation takes the linear form:

Log Y = Log A + X Log B ………….……………2

On writing Log A = a, Log B = b and Log Y = y, 

The equation becomes:

y = a + bx ………………………………….………3

CAGR in % (r) = (antilogb-1) × 100 …………4

Where,

y = dependent variable (area, production and productivity)

x = Time/Year (independent variable)

a = Constant/intercept

b = Regression coefficient of y on x

Instability  

Various methodological approaches have been developed to quantify instability in agricultural time series data. In this study instability in the area under cultivation, total production and productivity of apricot were measured using the Cuddy-Della Valle Instability Index (CDVI). In recent years, this index has been extensively utilized in empirical research as a robust and reliable indicator of variability in time series observations. The conventional coefficient of variation (CV) tends to overstate the degree of variability, particularly when long-term trends are present in the data. To address this limitation, the CDVI modifies the CV by incorporating an adjustment factor that accounts for trend effects, thereby providing a more accurate estimate of instability. The mathematical expression used to compute the instability index in presented below.

 Where, 

CV= Coefficient of variation 

SD = Standard Deviation 

SSres = Sum of squares of Residuals (SSR or SSE)           

SStot = Total sum of squares (SST)

R2 = Coefficient of multiple determination   

(yi) ̂=Is predicated value of y for observation i

yi = is the y value for observation i

y ̅=Is the mean of y value

Mean = average of area, production and productivity.

This section aligns with the stated objectives of the study and presents a detailed examination of the area, production and productivity of apricot across Kabul and Parwan provinces, as well as at the national level in Afghanistan. The analysis is structured under the key thematic headings corresponding to these three core dimensions to provide a comprehensive understanding of apricot cultivation trends in the selected regions. 

Table 1: CAGR in Area of Apricot in Kabul, Parwan Provinces and Afghanistan during 2015-16 to 2024-25.

Sources: (Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and livestock, 2024), At 5 percent level.NS: non-significant.

Table 1 the area under apricot cultivation has shown a varying growth pattern across Kabul, Parwan and Afghanistan. In Kabul, the cultivated area increased from 287000 hectares in 2015-16 to 854000 hectares in 2024-25. This reflects a moderate increase with a CAGR of 0.08, indicating that although there were occasional surges- such as a 120.42% increase in 2021-22 the overall long-term trend remained weakly positive. Parwan exhibited a relatively stable and consistent area increase from 1042000 hectares, registering a CAGR of 0.03. Nationally Afghanistan saw only a marginal increase from 9116000 hectares in 2015-16 to 25500000 hectares in 2024-25, resulting in an almost negligible CAGR of 0.003.(Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock, 2024).

Table 2: CAGR in Production of Apricot in Kabul, Parwan Provinces and Afghanistan during 2015-16 to 2024-25.

Sources: (Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and livestock, 2024), At 5 percent level.

 Table 2 the production of apricot in metric tons reflects complex and fluctuating patterns. In Kabul, production increased from 1866000 metric tons in 2015-16 to 6241000 metric tons in 2024-25 yielding a CAGR of 0.01. Parowan's production moved from 7294000 to 24725000 metric tons, also with a negligible CAGR of 0.003. Similarly, Afghanistan's total apricot production showed no real CAGR growth despite jumping from 87686000 to 192028000 metric tons over the ten years. These numbers indicate that while production volumes have grown substantially in some years, the growth is not sustained or stable enough to result in a significant long-term average rate of growth. 

Table 3: CAGR in Productivity of Apricot in Kabul, Parwan Provinces and Afghanistan during 2015-16 to 2024-25.

Sources: (Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and livestock, 2024), At 5 percent level.NS: non-significant. 

Table 3 the productivity of apricot, measured in metric tons per hectare, shows the most promising performance. In Kabul, yield increased form 6.5 t/ha in 2015-16 to 7.31 t/ha in 2024-25, resulting in a CAGR of 5.80. Parwan improved form 7.0 t/ha to over the same period, recording a 5.57. Nationally, Afghanistan achieved a CAGR of 9.63, increasing from 9.62 t/ha to 7.50 t/ha. The results obtained are in conformity with the results of Hamidullah Younisi et al. (2023) studied on growth and instability in area, production and productivity of Grape crop in Afghanistan during (2011- 12 to 2019-20). This yield growth is a testament to the adoption of improved agronomic practices, better-quality plant material, and efficient input use in many regions. 

Table 4: Instability of Area, Production and Productivity for Apricot in Selected Area Kabul, Parwan Provinces and Afghanistan during the Period 2015-16 to 2024-25.

Sources: (Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and livestock, 2024).

Table 4 the instability index for the area under apricot cultivation provides deeper insights. Parwan displayed the lowest instability index of 0.54, reflection a high degree of consistency and effective management of the apricot sector in that province. Kabul and Afghanistan, in contrast, recorded higher instability indices of 9.13 and 10.00 respectively. These figures suggest that although the area expanded, it did so with significant year-to-year fluctuations, likely caused by changes in grower's preferences, climatic evens, or land use polices. A critical concern in apricot production lies in its volatility. The instability index is highest at the national level (26.08), followed by Kabul, (15.22) and Parwan, (13.94). This trend highlights the fact that Afghanistan's apricot production is highly unpredic-table and subject to external shocks. Such high instability can be attributed to factors such as drought, pest infestation, price fluctuation and infrastructural constraints. Even in relatively stable regions like Parwan, double-digit instability suggests a need for policy intervention to enhance supply chain resilience. 

Unlike area and production, productivity trends demonstrate relatively low instability. The instability index in Kabul is only 1.48, followed by 3.85 in Parwan, indicating very stable and consistent yield performance. Even Afghanistan, with a slightly higher index of 10.36, still shows moderate variation, which is acceptable at the national level given its diverse topography and climatic conditions. The low inst-ability in yield implies that the quality of management and technology application has improved, even when other variables like area or production remain volatile.